"CORE HOLDING" Update: Roca Mines: Part II (ROK-TSXv) $1.23

"Core Holding"

ROCA MINES: Part II (ROK-TSXv) $1.23

I introduced Roca Mines (ROK-TSXv) the other day at $1.13 and since then it has cleaned up quite nicely, gaining almost 9%.

When Roca Mines was recently in the $1.00 range we saw tell-tale signs that it was about to blast off - and it did - making a move to over $1.20 in a matter of two days.

We are now seeing signs that Roca is ready to move again. But before I get into the technicals, I am going to relay a couple of points, which reiterate the upcoming catalysts that will drive ROK's share price higher, as well as some of ROK's fundamental strong points. ROK's main project right now is their MAX molybdenum project, located near Revelstoke B.C.

1> On track to begin fully permitted production of their high-grade ore by the end of 2006

2> First new metals mine in B.C. in almost a decade

3> Fully financed with no debt

4> Small initial capital expenditure for mine development, which is already well underway

5> 1000tpd mill acquired and being set-up on site with a few final components being shipped to the MAX site as we speak. (pictures of MAX site development available on Roca's website www.rocamines.com)

6> Off-take agreement signed for 100% of production from MAX in 06/07

7> 43-101 compliant, 42 million tonne/113 million lb resource, considered open at depth, with plans for expanding the resource in 2007. 3 Million pounds expected to be produced by the end of 2007

8> Highly experienced advisory board, including seasoned molybdenum experts

9> MAX shares geological similarities to Phelps Dodge's Urad/Henderson mine, which is the largest molybdenum deposit in the world. (It is speculated that MAX, with its high-grade moly ore, is only the tip of the ice-berg, hosting a much larger deposit underneath)

10> 2 highly prospective gold/silver properties in the Eskay Creek and Galore Creek areas of B.C., which will be explored further with cash-flow from MAX in 07

11> Very cheap in relation to other miners


Problems with ROK:

Roca's management team seems to have acquired a reputation for under-promoting them-selves, which could possibly explain why ROK's share price is not as high as it should be right now.

As well, Roca's share price is subject to overall market risks, like corrections in the TSX, as we saw in May and a couple of days ago with the blow to income trusts. ROK's share price fluctuations seem to mirror the TSX somewhat.

And, although molybdenum is trading at historically high levels (currently $25.00 - $25.50 range) and Roca is set to take advantage of these robust prices very soon, a lot of investors don't even know what molybdenum is at this point - this is where promotion and news coverage come into play.

Blue Pearl (BLE-TSX), another molybdenum company based in Smithers B.C., has just sky-rocketed due to a brilliant acquisition of a private molybdenum company called Thompson Creek Minerals, which owned a large stake in another private molybdenum company called Endako. This acquisition made the headlines and brought a lot of attention to the molybdenum space and should continue to do so. This media attention will probably carry over to other high-quality moly juniors, like Roca Mines.

BLE and ROK share the same financier - Sprott Asset Management (SAM) - So hopefully people will recognize this and the calibre of ROK's MAX project, creating spill-over from BLE to ROK shares. People always look for the closest thing to the stock that just exploded.

Technicals:

Roca's chart looks great, having made steady progression with periods of short consolidation, followed by nice gains. Roca's gains have happened during periods of increased volume, with pull-backs happening on thin volume. Ideally, this is the way you want a stock to trade.

Bullish signals:

-20 day SMA crossed the 50 day SMA a couple of days ago

-MACD is about to cross the signal line, histogram is about to turn positive

-CMF is on the verge of turning positive

-Cup and Handle pattern, which began in late August is in the handle phase, which acts as the final consolidation before a break-out

Macro:

-The TSX is approaching pre-correction levels. It closed today at 12,333.28. If the TSX makes it above 12,500, the level it began correcting from in May, we may see break-outs in many of the juniors, including ROK, which seems to follow the movements in the TSX quite strongly, as illustrated below:




I have provided a technical analysis of Roca Mines above, which may prove fruitful for trading, but my recommendation would be to hold on to your Roca shares, at least untill late December/early January, when ROK is set to start mining ore.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment or finacial advisor. I do not recommend buying any of the securities mentioned on MicroCapMayhem. Do your own research and contact your personal investment advisor prior to the purchase of any securities.