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| ROCA MINES (ROK TSXv) $1.13 - "Core Holding" Worth Taking A Closer Look At |
| Wednesday, November 01, 2006 |
"CORE HOLDING"
ROCA MINES (ROK TSXv) $1.13 - "Core Holding" Worth Taking A Closer Look At
Roca Mines (ROK-TSXv) is my number one core holding at the moment and I will begin by giving you a synopsis of why I think its share price is poised to move much higher in the coming months. You may ask, what does Roca Mines do? That's a good question. Roca Mines is set to become the next primary molybdenum producer.
Molybdenum, or "moly" as it is commonly called is used primarily as an alloy in steel. It strengthens steel and helps with corrosion. It is used in pipelines, cars, lubricants and just about anything else you can imagine. It has the fifth highest melting point of all the elements in the world and has recently made stellar gains, moving from around $4 a pound a couple years ago to a high of over $40 a pound and now levelling off to around $25 a pound.
We will look at the past and current performance of ROK in relationship to its peers. Roca’s peers include AUA, WEX, GPXM, BLE, GMO and others. As of late, BLE, or Blue Pearl Mining has made monster gains due to a breath-taking acquisition of Thompson Creek Minerals, instantly making BLE the world's largets publically traded molybdenum company. We will go over BLE in brief later in this report.
First we will discuss AUA, or Adanac Moly, which recently changed its name to Adanac Molybdenum Corporation, which has a much larger, lower grade molybdenum deposit than ROK, in Atlin B.C, called the Ruby Creek deposit.
The reason I am scrutinizing AUA in relation to ROK, rather than ROK's other peers, is that AUA seems to hold similar merit, and at the moment, both companies' share prices are comparable. Also, both AUA and ROK's projects are based in B.C. BLE would have been ROK's closest competitor, but after their above mentioned acquisition, BLE was thrust into a league of its own.
The proceeding comparison of ROK and AUA also provides a snap-shot of some of the strong points of ROK's business. AUA's Ruby Creek deposit has been owned by various other companies, but has never been brought to production for two reasons.
(1) Capital costs for mine development at Ruby Creek are astronomical. Approximately $400 million capex.
(2) Low prevailing molybdenum prices.
However, Ruby Creek is now looking attractive because of a giant surge in moly prices, which makes the initial capex look more reasonable and gives a robust profit outlook for the future.
The reason Roca Mines is a much better investment (in my oppinion) than AUA is that Roca is:
A) Roca is fully permitted for mining by the government of B.C. AUA is not
B) Roca will be producing by the end of 2006. AUA will not be producing until the earliest of 2008. Who knows where moly prices will be by 2008. Roca will be taking advantage of CURRENT HIGH MOLY PRICES.
C) Roca’s mill is being set up AS WE SPEAK. It will initially process 500 tpd, but will be increased to 1000 tpd after Roca's larger mine permit is approved by the B.C. mining industry. Currently Roca has been approved for a B.C. small mine permit, which they will use to fast-track production of their high-grade ore.
D) Roca’s moly is much higher grade than AUA’s. Roca’s highest grade is 1.95% MoS2, which will be the initial ore mined. 1.95% is very high grade.
E) Roca’s moly deposit shares geological similarities to Phelps Dodge’s massive Henderson moly mine. Currently the LARGEST MOLY MINE IN THE WORLD.
F) Roca has already signed an off take agreement with Derek Raphael of England to PURCHASE 100% OF ALL MOLY MINED at Roca’s MAX deposit in 2006/07. This just goes to show how much of a demand there is for molybdenum right now. Roca just has to mine and mill the ore and Derek Raphael will pick it up at Roca’s site. Roca doesn’t even have to ship it.
G) Roca will be the FIRST NEW MINE to go in to production in nearly a decade in B.C. Obtaining a mining permit is not easy and Roca already has it, AUA does not.
H) Roca has been financed by Sprott Asset Management. Sprott Asset Management is a leading fund and alternative investment company in Canada. Sprott has an extensive history for financing undervalued junior companies, which go on to be very successful. Sprott’s funds have out-performed and have been ranked number 1 by Morningstar many times over. Check out Sprott’s fund performance at http://www.sprott.com/. You can also read a recent report by Sprott Asset Management, which highlights ROK, called “Is Molybdenum Another way to Ride the Energy Bull?” available on Sprott's website, for free.
I) Roca will be the first to production of all the junior moly companies with the exception of GPXM and WEX, which I will get in to in a minute. Roca will be taking advantage of the current extremely robust moly prices by the end of 2006.
J) Roca is fully financed with a tight capital structure, minimal capex for mine development, creating a very short capital pay-back time of roughly 3 months.
K) Roca is also leveraged to gold, with their Foremore gold property in the Eskay Creek area of B.C. From Roca’s site, “Roca's Foremore project is located in one of the most active mining and exploration areas in British Columbia - the Eskay/Iskut Camp. This camp includes Barrick Gold's legendary Eskay Creek Mine, Cominco's historic Snip Mine and Novagold's Galore Creek project.” It is also important to note that Barrick recently put in a hostile takeover bid for Nova Gold, which goes to show how much potential properties in this area have. Roca also owns a property called Seagold, which it has entered into an option agreement with Romios Gold: “Romios Gold Resources Inc. (TSXv:RG), is earning an initial 50% interest in Roca's Seagold Property, now an integral component of the Newmont Lake Project in the prolific Eskay/Iskut Mining Camp of northwestern British Columbia.” Gold prices are at historical highs. This bodes well for Roca’s gold properties, which are not even considered in Roca’s current share price.
*Above is Roca mines 1 year chart, which displays the quick and steady progression it has made.
Other peers include Golden Phoenix Minerals (GPXM) and Win-Eldrich Mines (WEX), which are joint-ventured on the Ashdown deposit in Nevada. They claim they will be the first new moly producers, but have encountered many delays and their stories don’t seem to hold the same merit that Roca’s MAX property does. I must admit that I do not know that much about the Ashdown project, or either GPXM or WEX for that matter. Both WEX and GPXM have seen massive gains in their share prices over the last year, but they are not fully permitted for mining by the government. (All the mentioned moly companies are worth looking at, but I feel through my research and experience that Roca will be a big winner)
The recent gains in junior moly companies' share prices is indicative of the massive need for moly and the very minimal supply, which has created a supply/demand imbalance. The industrial demand for moly from China and India is gigantic. China’s economy is growing at an extremely fast rate and if their economy does not cool, they will require a lot of moly for infrastructure over the coming years, similar to the U.S. during the Industrial Revolution.
Roca’s last peer as mentioned above is Blue Pearl Mining (BLE). BLE has also been financed by Sprott Asset Management (SAM). Any company financed by SAM has an added layer of security. Sprott does not finance companies for a small return on capital, Sprott finances home-runs. Sky Resources (SKR) and Aurelian Resources (ARU) are two very successful companies, which Sprott has had an interest in. You can check them out and use them as an example of what kind of gains Sprott is looking for.
In my opinion both ROK and BLE could both be home-runs. BLE’s deposit is called the Davidson deposit, named for a molybdenum expert who worked on it. Davidson previously worked for BLE, but has recently been employed by Roca Mines to head Roca’s advisory board whose main goal is to expand Roca’s resource at depth. Davidson’s addition to Roca’s team shows a tremendous amount of confidence for the MAX molybdenum project. BLE’s share price has just gone rampant over speculation of a possible acquisition. The rumor is that BLE is either buying a private moly producer called Endako or purchasing Roca mines, which would provide current Roca shareholders with a very quick return on capital.
The reason for the speculation over BLE purchasing ROK is due to two factors. One is the fact that Davidson worked for BLE and is now working for ROK and the other is that they are both financed by Sprott. The problem with BLE is that they do not yet have their permits in place and their deposit is located very near the town of Smithers. The residents do not want the mine to happen. BLE also has to do some more environmental assessments and apply for more permits. Who knows how long this will take.
*(the above was written before BLE's current acquisition was announced. The rumor of BLE purchasing Endako turned out to be true and since then BLE has done extremely well. BLE acquired Thompson Creek Minerals, which owned a large stake in Endako).
Basically, Roca has all the pieces of the puzzle in place. If Roca sticks to its timeline and initiates production by the end of 2006 as planned, the share price could go RAMPANT.
Another great, confidence builder for Roca is the fact that they originally purchased their property from Newmont and Esso Minerals, two very large mining companies. The reason for Newmont and Esso selling the property was the low prevailing prices of molybdenum at the time.
Not long ago, moly was trading in the $5 dollar range, before it exploded to around $45 and has leveled off to around $25-30 a pound. Many analysts are calling for moly prices to go back down to around $11 per pound. This is similar to analysts refusing to believe that oil would its gains. Over the last 9 years a barrel of oil has climbed from around $9 to around $60 right now in 2006.
Newmont and Esso were dealing with $5 moly prices, which does not produce a lot of profit margin after mining and milling costs. Newmont and Esso definitely thought Roca’s property had some serious potential, because they spent $15 million on underground mine development and exploration. And that’s not just $15 million, that’s $15 million 1980 dollars, which would be worth much, much more on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Roca’s Max molybdenum deposit (their deposit is called the MAX deposit, although I have not referred to it as MAX consistently throughout my report), is an underground mine. Newmont and Esso did all the work way back in the 80’s. The underground work is all done, including the access adit and ventilation system.
The MAX deposit is also considered OPEN AT DEPTH. The current resource of 170 million pounds of molybdenum (outlined in the 43-101 technical report, available on Roca’s website), is in the process of being re-explored by their advisory board to expand the resources significantly at depth. But even with just the current resource, Roca will be a cash cow. Roca has a capital payback time of approximately 3 months after initial production, before reaping the benefits of a robust cash-flow/revenue stream. Junior miners are often valued on cash-flow multiples, often trading at 5 to 10 times cash-flow. Roca is trading at about 1 times projected 07 cash-flow, which makes the current share price look measly.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment or finacial advisor. I do not recommend buying any of the securities mentioned on MicroCapMayhem. Do your own research and contact your personal investment advisor prior to the purchase of any securities |
posted by MicroCapMayhem @ 9:20 PM   |
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