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| "TRADER ALERT" & "Technicals 101" New junior with good looking technicals - Terex Resources (TRR-TSXv) $0.20 |
| Friday, November 03, 2006 |
*Chart Viewing Problems!! After you click on the above chart to view it in a larger window, hold your cursor steady on the image and a box will appear on the bottom right-hand portion of the chart. When you hold your cursor above the box a message will appear asking you if you would like to enlarge the image to its original size. Click this box and the image will appear correctly and clearly.
MicroCapMayhem "TRADER ALERT"
Short-term swing opportunity
Terex Resources (TRR-TSXv) $0.20
*Techicals 101: In this "TRADER ALERT" I will be going into more depth than usual for describing some of the methods I use to analyse potential opportunities. I explain in some detail some of the indicators, which I use to generate technical buy and sell signals. Once in a while, I will be updating readers with new "Technicals 101" segments of MicroCapMayhem.
Today's "Trader Alert" is based solely on a technical basis. The company, Terex Resources (TRR-TSXv), being featured is a Canadian junior with gold properties in Ontario.
Today Terex announced that they have quadrupled their drill program to 20,000 metres and have announced a $1 - $1.5 million private placement.
However, we are only concerned with the technicals of Terex and will be looking at it with a very short time horizon.
Looking at the 6 month daily chart, we see numerous bullish signals forming. For my analysis, I will be using 6 indicators:
1 - Slow Stochastics (%K,14) (%D,3), to measure over-bought and over-sold conditions
2 - MACD (12,26,9) to measure momentum and sentiment
3 - CMF (Chaikin's Money Flow, which measures if the stock is under accumulation or distribution)
4 - Bollinger Bands (20, 2.0), for buy and sell signals
5 - Volume, to see if the rally is sustainable
6 - News, but to a much lesser extent than the above mentioned indicators
7 - Moving average cross-overs
First we will start with an analysis of the slow stochastics. I like to use the Slow Stochastics rather than the Fast Stochastics, because it generates less buy and sell signals and the signals tend to be more accurate.
Stochastics are showing an overbought condition, which occurs when it crosses above the 80 line, the opposite of an over-sold condition, which occurs when stochastics is below the 20 line.
Stochastics is a banded oscillator, meaning it fluctuates between over-bought and over-sold conditions. When a stock is in a strong up-trend, Stochastics can stay in over-bought territory for an extended period of time. A sell signal would be generated when stochastics begins to descend through the 80 line, as well as when the %K line crosses down through the %D line.
In the case of Terex, the %K line has just crossed through the %D line and Stochastics is on the verge of crossing back down through the 80 line.
This tells me that you may want to keep an eye on Stochastics, but for the time being it looks like it may stay in over-bought territory, while Terex continues its trend, which is fine.
MACD is showing us several strong bullish signals, which indicate a strong up-trend and building momentum.
The MACD line has crossed through the signal line, which generated our first buy signal. MACD has also just crossed through the center line, which is our second bullish buy signal. Both of these buy signals were preceeded by a positive divergence in the MACD histogram, which occured while Terex was down-trending starting in October. Looking for positive divergences can give you a heads-up on future moves.
Bollinger Bands look equally bullish. Recently, Terex crossed up through its 20 day simple moving average and since then it has pierced its upper Bollinger Band twice. Yesterday's trading was very bullish, closing near the highs of the day and creating the second puncture through the upper band. Today, Terex gapped up slightly and has remained above the upper band all day.
If Terex pulls back and a trade is entered, one must keep an eye on whether there is enough momentum to push TRR through its upper band again. If Terex fails to pierce through the upper band next time it rips, an exit strategy may be considered.
Yesterday's trading also catapulted TRR above its 50 day SMA adding yet more confirmation of a bullish move.
CMF, which indicates whether a stock is under distribution or accumulation based on where the stock closes for the day in relation to its highs or lows, is giving a reading of +0.323, a bullish score indicative of strong accumulation and good sentiment.
Conclusion:
-One must keep an eye on volume. Volume has increased significantly and TRR must continue to trade big volume to blast through its old highs.
-There is over-head resistance at $0.22. If this breaks you may get a nice rip and a re-test of Terex's old highs of just over $0.26.
-MACD shows building momentum, so if Terex pulls-back below its upper Bollinger Band this may present an attractive entry.
-Monitor Stochastics for signs of a big decline through the 80 line.
-These stocks are highly sensitive to news, so keeping an eye on the fundamental picture never hurts.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment or finacial advisor. I do not recommend buying any of the securities mentioned on MicroCapMayhem. Do your own research and contact your personal investment advisor prior to the purchase of any securities. |
posted by MicroCapMayhem @ 10:48 AM   |
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| 8 Comments: |
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Hey Micro Cap Mayhem!
Great looking blog! You've got some excellent posts so far, so keep up the great work.
I wish you all the best with this site and I look forward to following it!